What is the probability that
. . . the book of Mormon is a myth?

based on archaeological discoveries related to
. . . the book of Mormon


This page analyzes the book of Mormon using statistical tools relative to archaeological records. Is the book of Mormon credible?

The previous two linked pages show the book of Acts correlates to archaeological records at a high confidence level based on research and analysis by the Classic Scholar, Dr. Colin J. Hemer. However, archaeological records that would support the book of Mormon have never been uncovered. The earliest archaeological digs aimed at uncovering support for the book of Mormon began in the 1950s. However, more than a half century has not uncovered even one inscription in the Western Hemisphere to match anything in the book of Mormon.

To be fair to Mormons, I have included links on this page to the Mormon faith based web pages that discuss the pro/con evidence for the book of Mormon. Also, I have made links to people who have left the Mormon faith due to no supporting evidence. This information is not intended to stir negative emotions in Mormons or other people. The goal of this web site is to discover spiritual truth as well as spiritual deception. I am always open to receiving an e-mail from anyone.


Calculating the probability
. . . of the book of Mormon being a myth

If a so-called "holy book" is NOT a myth, then we will find that the names of cities, people, and other unique details will be supported by archaeological evidence. If there is data supporting the texts, we can calculate whether the book of Mormon should be considered to be based on fact or simply a good fiction story.

It is also viable that the extreme condition of no evidence can be demonstrated. In other words, archaeologists would find no data to support the existence of even one item written into a so-called holy book. In fact, this is the problem with the book of Mormon.

Before doing a probability calculation, consider that the book of Mormon records that Jewish people brought horses and elephants to the western hemisphere about 600 years before the birth of Jesus Christ. If horses and elephants were brought to the America's in the 6th century BCE, then evidence of horses and elephants (in the western hemisphere) would be uncovered. However, no evidence of horses and elephants being brought to the Americas have been found to support the book of Mormon in the pre-Columbian New World (before 1492).

The book of Mormon falls short on this major point. The only evidence that horses were brought to the Americas has been verified to have occurred since Europeans crossed over in the 16th century and onward (post-Columbian New World). Since horses and elephants would have roamed far and wide in the Americas, no remains of horses (or even elephants) in the pre-Columbian New World establishes a credibility gap for the book of Mormon.

Now consider the evidence that archaeologists should find for the book of Mormon. In the book of Mormon, we find references to the following:

  • at least 46 cities
  • at least 11 different coin types
  • at least 11 unique land areas
  • at least 7 unique metals including steel for making swords
  • at least 8 unique animals

The list above shows 83 unique items for which archaeological evidence should be found. In fact, due to the unique nature of these items, archaeological evidence should have already been found (such as the evidence of horses being present in the pre-Columbian New World) . However, not even one item has been found to validate the book of Mormon.

Since no archaeological finds support the book of Mormon, we can calculate the probability of the book of Mormon being creative fiction or potentially a myth. The calculation conservatively supports the book of Mormon is fictional. The calculation supports that the probability of the book of Mormon being true is less than 8 chances in 100 billion, billion (8.2 x 10-20).

How did Joseph Smith come up with the book of Mormon?

Please click here to find the most credible explanation that I have ever read about the book of Mormon. If you agree or disagree, you have the right to respond to the webmaster. Your question, if credible, will be placed into the FAQ section.

Perhaps you are a Mormon because you have felt a burning spiritual presence in your bosom. Does that mean this experience is from God?

This is an appropriate question since people who are non-Mormons have also experienced a fiery spiritual presence, yet can be shown to have been spiritually deceived. For example, please read the linked page that discusses the fiery spiritual experiences of Muhammad, the prophet of Islam.

At the linked web site, you will learn that Islam and Christianity are diametrical opposites. For example, the main theme in Christianity is Jesus' death and resurrection. Instead, Islam proclaims that Jesus did not die on the cross. However, archaeological evidence does not support the view of the Qur'an that Jesus did NOT die on the cross. To date, just like the book of Mormon, not a single archaeological item has been uncovered to support the view that Jesus did NOT die on the cross. The probability of Muhammad being correct about Jesus is less than 2 chances in 1 billion based on archaeological evidence. To be a Muslim requires blind faith in a man who claimed himself to be a prophet.

Back to the book of Mormon. People such as Joseph Smith appear to have been completely deceived or were themselves spiritual deceivers. We will never know exactly what happened at the subjective personality of Joseph Smith. But we do know that the book of Mormon does not appear to be based on facts. And based on click here, it is highly probably that the book of Mormon is a modified fictional manuscript written before Joseph Smith came up with the book of Mormon. Is the book of Mormon a product of plagiarism?


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Based on the book:
"Gabriel's Faces: voice of the Archangel"
ISBN 0-9640404-2-5