Probability of the New Testament Event
. . . Jesus dying on the cross

Using archaeological evidence as a foundational basis, we can calculate that at least 19 people referred to in the New Testament witnessed Jesus being crucified. Fifteen of these people boldly proclaimed that Jesus arose from the dead. Two of them probably did join the ranks of the early Christians (Simon of Cyrene and Alexander). Below is a list along with supporting evidence for these 19 people with a calculated probability level.

In regards to archaeological evidence, each person listed below has archaeological support for their inclusion in this list. For example, a discovery was made that verified the person to have existed such as the high priest named Caiaphas or Pontius Pilate.

Others in the list below are referred to by Luke, who wrote the book of Acts. Classic scholar, Dr. Colin Hemer, has shown that the book of Acts correlates to the archaeological records. Because Luke has been proven to be reliable for historic information, Luke's references to specific biblical characters makes that person credible.

1. The Apostle Paul: Verified to exist due to 3 independent authors, the fact that Saul of Tarsus as an educated man who persecuted Christians (Dissimilarity Criteria), and that the 3 authors wrote within 20 to 34 years after Jesus lived. Probability that Paul existed as a skeptic and became the early leader of the Christians is high due to the correlation between Acts and the archaeological record. Classic scholar Dr. Colin Hemer correlates 162 archaeological records that match the texts in Acts chapters 13 to 28. The following chart gives a summary for the Apostle Paul.

The Apostle Paul
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
3	1 educated, persecuted Christians	13 Wrote 13 epistles	162 Acts / Archeolog- ical records	1041 essentially 100%

2. James, the brother of Jesus: Verified to exist due to 8 independent authors, the fact that James did not believe in Jesus as the messiah (Dissimilarity Criteria), that the 8 authors wrote within 20 to 65 years after Jesus lived, and the James ossuary. The probability that James existed as a skeptic and became the early leader of the Christians is greater than 99.996%.

James, Son of Joseph, Brother of Jesus
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
8	1 skeptic	8	1 James ossuary Plus Acts 162 records	99.996% 1040 essentially ~100%

3. Jude, the brother of Jesus: Verified to exist due to 4 independent authors, the fact that Jude did not believe in Jesus as the messiah (Dissimilarity Criteria), and that the 4 authors wrote within 20 to 65 years after Jesus lived. Probability that Jude existed as a skeptic and became one of the early Christians is greater than 99.7%. The following chart gives a summary for Jude.

Jude, Brother of Jesus
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
4	1 (skeptic)	4	0 Plus Acts 162 records	99.7% 1038 essentially ~100%

4. Simon, the brother of Jesus The following chart gives a summary for Simon.

Simon, Brother of Jesus
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
3	1 (skeptic)	3	0 Plus Acts 162 records	99.2% 1038 essentially ~100%

5. Joses, the brother of Jesus The following chart gives a summary for Joses.

Joses, Brother of Jesus
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
3	1 (skeptic)	3	0 Plus Acts 162 records	99.2% 1038 essentially ~100%

6. James, son of Zebedee The following chart gives a summary for this James.

James, son of Zebedee, Apostle of Jesus
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
3	1 (fled from Jesus at crucifixion)	3	0 Plus Acts 162 records	99.2% 1038 essentially ~100%

7. The Apostle John, son of Zebedee The following chart gives a summary for the Apostle John.

The Apostle John, son of Zebedee
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
8	0	8	0 Plus Acts 162 records	99.994% 1040 essentially ~100%

8. The Apostle Peter: The following chart gives a summary for the Apostle Peter.

The Apostle Peter
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
6	1 (denied Jesus at crucifixion)	6	0 Plus Acts 162 records	99.97% 1040 essentially ~100%

9. The Apostle Andrew: The following chart gives a summary for the Apostle Andrew.

The Apostle Andrew
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
3	1 (fled when Jesus arrested)	3	0 Plus Acts 162 records	99.2% 1038 essentially ~100%

10. The Apostle Philip: The following chart gives a summary for the Apostle Philip.

The Apostle Philip
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
3	1 (fled when Jesus arrested)	3	0 Plus Acts 162 records	99.2% 1038 essentially ~100%

11. The Apostle Bartholomew: The following chart gives a summary for the Apostle Bartholomew.

The Apostle Bartholomew
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
2	1 (fled when Jesus arrested)	2	0 Plus Acts 162 records	97.4% 1038 essentially ~100%

12. Doubting Thomas, Apostle: The following chart gives a summary for the Apostle Doubting Thomas.

The Apostle Doubting Thomas
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
3	1 (fled at Jesus arrest and doubted Jesus' resurrection)	3	0 Plus Acts 162 records	99.2% 1038 essentially ~100%

13. Matthew, Tax Collector and Apostle: The following chart gives a summary for Matthew, Tax Collector and Apostle.

Matthew, Tax Collector and Apostle
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
3	1 (fled at Jesus arrest / tax collector)	3	0 Plus Acts 162 records	99.2% 1038 essentially ~100%

14. The Apostle, James the Less: The following chart gives a summary for Apostle, James the Less.

Apostle, James the Less
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
2	1 (fled at Jesus arrest)	2	0 Plus Acts 162 records	97.4% 1038 essentially ~100%

15. The Apostle, Simon the Zealot: The following chart gives a summary for Apostle, Simon the Zealot.

Apostle, Simon the Zealot
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
2	1 (fled at Jesus arrest)	2	0 Plus Acts 162 records	97.4% 1038 essentially ~100%

16. Simon of Cyrene, who carried Jesus' cross: The following chart gives a summary for Simon of Cyrene.

Simon of Cyrene, who carried Jesus' cross
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
2	1 (Jesus not able to carry cross)	2	1 (Alexander ossuary)	98.5%

17. Alexander, son of Simon of Cyrene: The following chart gives a summary for him.

Alexander, son of Simon of Cyrene
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
2	0	2	1 (Alexander ossuary)	97.4%

18. Pontius Pilate, who sentenced Jesus to die on the cross: The following chart gives a summary for Pilate.

Pontius Pilate
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
6	0	6	1 (Pilate Inscription) Plus Acts 162 records	99.97% 1039 essentially ~100%

19. Joseph Caiaphas, the high priest at the trial of Jesus: The following chart gives a summary for Caiaphas.

Caiaphas, the High Priest
Independently Attested	Dissimilarity negative report	Contextual Reliability	Physical Evidence	Confidence Level
5	0	5	1 (Caiaphas ossuary) Plus Acts 162 records	99.91% 1039 essentially ~100%

On the chart below, this list of literary and archaeological data from above is displayed. To date, no archaeological discovery has been uncovered that supports the Naturalist (Atheist) view of Jesus.

Comparing the Faith Level Required to be a Naturalist (Atheist) to Christian Faith